Hey Dems – This is how to beat Trump

Before I dive into this topic, let me say that I’ll vote for whoever wins the Democratic primary, even the candidates I’m not too enthusiastic about including Delaney, Sanders, Gabbard, Hickenlooper, and Gillibrand. I have to say too that I am still irritated by Bernie’s behavior during the Democratic primary of 2016, and the fact that he only cooly supported HRC, and to this day wants nothing to do with her or by extension her supporters. By I’ll leave it at that for now.

If there are any lessons from the 2016 Republican primary that Trump opponents could learn, it would be that you can’t out bully Trump.  He thrives on petty fights on the low road.  He’ll give his opponent a nickname, remember “Little Marco”, “Lying Ted”, “Pocahontas”, “Low Energy Jeb”, “Crazy Bernie” and bait the candidate to go on the defensive or to strike back.  As long as the debate is about nicknames, and grade school insults, Trump wins.  The second lesson is that he lies, by the Toronto Star’s Daniel Dale’s count, 4,424 falsehoods as of February 20, 2019, nearly 6 lies per day since Trump became president. Practically everything he will say on the debate stage will be misleading, a falsehood or a flat out lie.  Given this fact, the democratic candidates need to understand that Trump supporters don’t care if he lies – truth is of no importance.  Nor do they seem to care that Trump may have committed crimes while in office, that he and his campaign may have colluded with the Russians to win the election. Many Dems and Repubs view events through a partisan polarized lens – us vs. them; good guys vs. bad guys.  What Republicans seem more interested in is fighting culture wars rooted in the fear that they may loose their guns, their cows and hamburgers, their bibles, the right to life, the right to pollute with impunity, the right to large tax breaks, the right to keep blacks, legal immigrants, and the elderly from voting, and the right to keep the country as white as possible by walling out non-white immigrants.

Now that I’ve laid this out, one word of advice to the Democrats is not to engage the extreme right wing or give any oxygen to their conspiracies. The Dems have already won the culture wars by a fairly wide margin as evidenced by the popular vote and the landslide victory in the midterms.  The Dems should focus on the issues that the majority of Americans want action on – climate change, income inequality, racial justice, immigration reform, women’s rights, LGQTB issues, judicial appointments that look like America, infrastructure, and rehabilitating the reputation of the U.S. in the eyes of our traditional allies.

Here’s a look at some of the top candidates and how they could beat Trump:

Booker v. Trump – Trump seems to think he has Booker’s number, that he can intimidate him.  It may be a New Jersey turf competition for Trump who will use his thuggish ways to smear Booker.  Like his racist attacks on Obama, Trump will attempt to diminish Booker’s accomplishments by questioning his education and credentials.  And Trump has some nerve given that he threatened lawsuits against Fordham if they released his transcripts. I think the worst thing Booker could do is go on the defensive.  He needs to challenge Trump’s abysmal record and push forward his own agenda and force Trump to debate the issues.

Harris v. Trump – Trump is going to brand Harris an extreme liberal or a socialist who was bad on criminal justice issues.  He’ll take the Democrat opposition research on her and use it to his advantage.  And don’t be surprised if he pushes out a birther issue calling into question her legitimacy because she lived in Canada and her parents were born outside the U.S. She shouldn’t spend much time on the defense.  If he questions her citizenship, she can demand his tax returns.  I think she could bring issues of race to the fore, citing Charlottesville, the lack of diversity in his cabinet and with his judicial picks.  But she should focus most on her policies and on restoring democracy.  Her message must be positive and aspirational.

Klobuchar v. Trump – Trump no doubt will pounce on Klobuchar’s temper with staff.  He’ll play the sexist card and brand her emotional and unfit for running the country.  She could challenge him on this issue citing his deplorable history with women.  Like all other candidates, though, she has to remain positive and aspirational.  She won’t get enthusiastic support from progressives, but she may pick up centrist Hillary supporters, and support from Independents and Republicans who are simply feed up with Trump.

Warren v. Trump – Warren can win, but she has to navigate the DNA fiasco carefully and not let Trump get under her skin with the Pocahontas chants.  She is a fighter, however, and she may be the only one who could take him down at his own game.  I think it would be a mistake, though, for her to fight him on the school playground. Her bigger problem may be the extremist label.  Republicans like to use the extremist label (because it has this connection to terrorism) to demonize opponents.  Rather than trying to prove that she’s not an extremist, Warren should focus on income inequality which will resonate with most Americans and a vision for a better future.

Sanders v. Trump – Trump will brand Bernie an extremist and socialist, linking his vision to failed experiments in Venezuela and Cuba.  Bernie will need to brush that aside as ridiculousness and instead focus on gaining traction in the African-American community, maintaining the 2016 enthusiasm from millennials, and winning support from HRC supporters who feel betrayed by the campaign in 2016.  For BS to win, he needs a big turnout.

All the Democratic candidates need to stay laser focused on the issues that the majority of Americans care most about – gun control, climate change, racial justice, immigration reform, infrastructure, income inequality, women’s rights, LBGQT issues, restoring U.S. democracy and U.S. standing in the world, and matters of foreign policy.  And while “Space is the Place”, Peace is the Thing. These issues are the path to victory and the best way to out Trump Trump.

 

Clinton Should Focus on Trump Not Bernie

Secretary Clinton is not doing herself a favor by going after Bernie Sanders.  All she’s doing is ticking off Bernie supporters who she will need supporting her when she becomes the nominee.  Now I’m not writing off Bernie.  He’ll win some more states and do very well in others collecting a number of delegates in the process.  Notwithstanding his success, the delegate math is stacked against him.  He knows this.  And Hillary should too.  What she needs to do is start showing Bernie more respect.  Her gaffe about Bernie not standing with her in her fight for health care when she was first lady, when in fact he was standing behind her, and had received her praise, came across as another desperate lie.  I don’t think she misspoke as much as she selectively forgot.  As with the earlier comments about the Reagans being leaders in the discussion of HIV/Aids – they were anything but leaders – Nancy was famously the woman who preached abstinence and is best known for her “just say no” campaign – Clinton risks further credibility problems by reaching into the past to say something clever.  I hate to say it because it is what so many don’t like about her, but she needs to stick to the script.  The problem is, she and Bernie are both held to a much higher standard than Trump when it comes to public statements.   When they misspeak or misremember, the press trounces on them.  When Trump lies, taunts, bullies and makes some of the most vile remarks, he gets a pass.  And when he is critiqued, he simply says that the liberal media is out to get him and his faithful madly cheer seething with hatred and ready to do whatever Trump calls on them to do.  So what Clinton needs to do is explain how she plans to beat Trump, without arguing that she is better suited to beat him than Bernie, even though she is. Bernie can only defeat Trump if Trump self-implodes, which is a possibility.  Trump might not even win the nomination. But if he does, Hillary will need all of Bernie’s supporters to turn out.  If they don’t, game over.

Clinton Wins Dems in Red States

Hillary Clinton may win the delegate count with the help of super delegates, but she hasn’t been able to defeat Bernie Sanders in very many states that typically vote blue in general elections.  So far, Bernie has taken the blue states of CO, MI, MN and VT.  Clinton, on the other hand, has won mostly in states that go for Republicans, the so called red states. Giving the delegate math, Bernie is not likely to win the nomination.  And if his supporters in Dem. strongholds do not turn out in November to support Clinton, she is not likely to win the presidency.  I can guarantee this:  them southern states ain’ta turnin blue, that’s for sure – although North Carolina and Florida could be up for grabs.  The same could be said for Virginia, a blue state in 2012 that could turn blood red in November.

The problem for the Clinton campaign has been drumming up enthusiasm for her vision, which is not terribly attractive to younger voters.  Her platform has been mostly to assure the public that she’ll continue President Obama’s legacy.  That’s just not enough for young voters who are saddled with debt and fear the future, even though the President has managed to accomplish quite a lot – things that have benefited the young and old alike, despite Republican obstructionism. The thing is, Bernie has a vision – a laudable but unrealistic one in my judgement – of a country where Wall Street is taken down a notch and corporate America willingly pays taxes; a vision where Congress suddenly decides that a single payer health care system makes sense as an alternative to the Obama care that they have tried repeatedly to repeal and replace. Can you see the legislature supporting free tuition and student loan forgiveness for all in debt?  I would like for Wall Street to forgive my credit card debt and my home loan and pay back all the student loans I paid in my day, and I am sure Bernie has a plan for that on his website.  Simply put, BS is full of promises that he cannot possibly deliver, and young people have blindly bought into the rhetoric, just as voters have bought into Trump’s slick and self-funding con job. When BS loses the nomination, as he most assuredly will, will his idealistic young fans rally behind Hillary Clinton?  Sadly, I don’t think they will.

That is, young people will not turn out for Clinton unless she scares the shit of them with the prospects of a Trump presidency.  Are the young idealists capable of grasping reality? Can’t they see that Trump would be an absolute disaster for them and the country?  Do they care?  Would they prefer to have fun at protests for the next four years? I guess it would keep activists employed.   I know that I am being cynical, but the stakes are high.  We can’t lose 4 years to a egomaniac who seems to have no core beliefs except the belief in himself.  Trump essentially wants to lower taxes for the wealthy, give corporate welfare to entice American businesses to come back home, build up a bloated military, which is always good for big business, and get rid of environmental protections, ignoring climate change in the process. He’d somehow deport the undocumented (would he bring back Trump airlines for this?) ban Muslims from entering the country and close mosques, here in the land of the free and the home of the brave.  Trump might have to knock down Lady Liberty and build a giant Trump wall on Ellis Island. Trump’s biggest supporters, the white middle class and the “poorly educated” had better brace to pay more for everything as a result of protectionism, which would spark trade wars.  You like your Honda Civic?  How about paying $50,000 for one.  Might I offer you a Chevy Spark instead?  How about a Dodge Dart? (of course you will need to buy the engine warmer if you live in a cold climate) The bailout was a good idea, but it’s time America make a better car, and only competition can make that happen, that is if you believe in free and fair trade.

And I am only getting started.  If you think the U.S. is a divided nation now, imagine a Trump presidency, full of ego and little regard for civility, a free press, peace, human rights, the environment and democratic institutions.  Congress is not a board of directors and the American people are not simply reality show TV fans.  Hostile takeovers and hardball diplomacy will not gain the U.S. standing in the world or make it any safer.  Imagine Carl Icahn negotiating peace between Israel and the Middle East. And get this, if Trump is elected, can you imagine Ted Cruz as the next Supreme Court justice?  We’d be one step closer to a heavily armed theocracy in this country. It could happen.  I’m serious. If Clinton is unsuccessful in scaring the crap out of young Bernie supporters so that they turnout in November, Trump wins handily and the next 4 years will be an absolute disaster for us all, Trump supporters included.

Election Prediction – Clinton Takes the Top Prize

Despite the polls, the U.S. electorate is unlikely to vote an outsider into office.  What I mean by outsider is one with either no political experience – Fiorina, Trump, Carson- or a candidate who is not a true member of one of the two parties – Trump and Sanders.

For better or worse, the U.S. has just two functioning parties, and one, the GOP, is struggling to stay relevant as it’s been hijacked by Trump and is very close to becoming a fringe party of loud unelectable extremist voices.  In a fierce battle to rescue the party, the leadership will turn its back on Trump and its long line of clowns, which spells defeat for Cruz (the most conservative of the bunch based on rankings from GovTrack.us), Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Kasich and Rick Perry.  Lindsay Graham and Bobby Jindal have no chance polling at less than 1%.  This leaves Bush and Rubio to duke it out and as flawed as Bush numero tres happens to be, I expect him to come out on top.

On the Democrat side, while Sanders, like Trump has attracted large crowds, most won’t vote for a self-described Socialist, much to the dismay of Republicans who praise Bernie as a serious and honest candidate. The GOP would also like nothing better than for Biden to get into the race and even apparently persuaded Quinnipiac to poll Biden’s numbers even though he is not yet running. The GOP and the Press have relentlessly attacked Hillary Clinton over the email server affair hoping to turn it all into a scandal so that Biden runs and wins the nomination.  If he does, Bush may not trounce Biden but he’d have a much easier time beating Biden than he would Hillary Clinton.  However, despite the GOPs attempts to manipulate the Democratic race, I expect Clinton to survive server “scandal” and the rehashed assaults over her role in the Benghazi attack and win the nomination fairly handily over her competitors and take the general by a hanging chad, thanks to Trump’s last minute 3rd party disruption, a la Ralph Nader and Ross Perot.

Trump and the parties pathways to victory

I know why all the GOP candidates didn’t take on Trump in the first GOP debate – they’re afraid of him.  Afraid he’d turn the audience against them; afraid he might sue them if they crossed him; and afraid that he’ll run as a third party candidate.  And he just might if enough of the field were to attack him at some point.  Their strategy was to go easy on Trump and not goad him into slinging zingers, like the one he slang on Rand Paul who tried to call him out early on.

Almost everyone has written the Donald off as a serious candidate, and possibly even conservatives who until the debate, liked what they heard, but I wouldn’t write him off just yet.  He might continue to surprise and could even win the nomination.  And if he did, and the GOP united in support of him, which seems unlikely, but if they did, he would give Hillary Clinton a good fight, though she would win with ease.

In my opinion, Trump would be the least electable of the lot, alongside Gov. Rick Perry, Senator Lindsay Graham whose candidacy makes me think of House of Cards, Gov. Jindal who had the awkward family reveal, and Gov. Huckabee whose incendiary rhetoric is both dangerous and pitiful. The most electable candidates and the ones Democrats like me should fear the most are Gov. Jeb Bush, Senator Marco Rubio, Gov. Rick Kasich and Gov. Scott Walker.  The union busting Walker may have some appeal outside the Midwest where people tend to hate teachers and the unions who protect them. Marcus Rubio may gain the backing of several billionaires in the coming months and whip the tea party into a frenzy with his memorized talking points.  Rick Kasich, who I first thought was the lead vocalist for the band the Cars, appears to be a moderate who could draw support in others regions, not the South, and take some votes from Jeb Bush.  And of course if Jeb Bush wakes up and finds a little fire in his belly, he could emerge as the one to beat.  But none of the candidates did themselves much of a favor in the debates.  They sounded scripted, timid and uninspiring.

The question is, will the Republican base turn out to vote for Rubio? If Bush were nominated, would the base support him or throw their support to Trump, the spoiler.  Bush and Rubio are Clinton’s biggest threats.  Which is why her best pathway to victory is for Trump to run as an Independent if not nominated by the GOP.  And though he’d take some of her votes, he’d take more away from the GOP as disaffected right wingers – who don’t believe in science, regulations, the separation of church and state and who generally don’t like government and prefer it be run as a business, because we all know that corporations are people – clamor to register their angst. But this scenario could also have the effect of turning out both bases of the two parties.  The GOP’s best pathway to victory, then, will be to continue to push voter suppression laws, because if the elderly, students, Blacks and Latinos can’t vote, many of whom are registered Democrats, it’s all over for the former first lady, Senator and Secretary of State. It is.

IRANT

In my opinion, the main reason for the opposition to the Iran nuclear deal has nothing to do with security and everything to do with politics.  The Republicans need an issue that gives them some traction in the election cycle.  The Republicans claim the deal will unleash the terror prone state of Iran to make all sorts of mischief in the middle east.  Before the agreement, the Republicans argued that the biggest threat to the middle east was the nuclear state of Iran. And so the deal removes that threat and the region is safer and we can breathe a collective sigh of relief, but the Republicans aren’t buying it and are saying things like – “we didn’t get anything for the deal” (as if a non-nuclear Iran were nothing), and that Iran will use the “signing bonus”, which happens to be their own money previously tied up in economic sanctions, “to sponsor terrorism.”  They say we didn’t get the release of American hostages, which is regrettable, but never the point of the negotiations.  46 Republicans, in an effort to derail U.S. negotiations, even went as far as to write a letter to the supreme leader of Iran saying that any deal would have to be approved by congress. Such action is unprecedented in U.S. politics and shows a complete disrespect for the President, the will of the people who support him and borders on treason. This isn’t the first time that Republicans have refused to work with the Obama administration or tried to derail policies that the majority of Americans support – in fact they have attacked him relentlessly since 2008, and not just his politics. They’ve used incendiary rhetoric, compared him to Hitler, called him a liar, questioned his birthplace, demanded his college transcripts, hinted that he was not a Christian, and now claim that the Iran deal effectively makes him a terrorist who hates America.  They’ve obstructed, filibustered, wearing out the word NO in the process, and have shown more respect to the Israeli head of state than to the their own U.S. President. Unwittingly, they’ve done such a great job of whipping the conservative base into a frenzy that a billionaire reality star and real estate mogul, is now the leading GOP presidential candidate. Surprisingly, the candidates have done very little to discredit Trump because they are not used to standing up to billionaires.  And because of the tactics of the right, the GOP is now an entertaining party of scary clowns.