Clinton Should Focus on Trump Not Bernie

Secretary Clinton is not doing herself a favor by going after Bernie Sanders.  All she’s doing is ticking off Bernie supporters who she will need supporting her when she becomes the nominee.  Now I’m not writing off Bernie.  He’ll win some more states and do very well in others collecting a number of delegates in the process.  Notwithstanding his success, the delegate math is stacked against him.  He knows this.  And Hillary should too.  What she needs to do is start showing Bernie more respect.  Her gaffe about Bernie not standing with her in her fight for health care when she was first lady, when in fact he was standing behind her, and had received her praise, came across as another desperate lie.  I don’t think she misspoke as much as she selectively forgot.  As with the earlier comments about the Reagans being leaders in the discussion of HIV/Aids – they were anything but leaders – Nancy was famously the woman who preached abstinence and is best known for her “just say no” campaign – Clinton risks further credibility problems by reaching into the past to say something clever.  I hate to say it because it is what so many don’t like about her, but she needs to stick to the script.  The problem is, she and Bernie are both held to a much higher standard than Trump when it comes to public statements.   When they misspeak or misremember, the press trounces on them.  When Trump lies, taunts, bullies and makes some of the most vile remarks, he gets a pass.  And when he is critiqued, he simply says that the liberal media is out to get him and his faithful madly cheer seething with hatred and ready to do whatever Trump calls on them to do.  So what Clinton needs to do is explain how she plans to beat Trump, without arguing that she is better suited to beat him than Bernie, even though she is. Bernie can only defeat Trump if Trump self-implodes, which is a possibility.  Trump might not even win the nomination. But if he does, Hillary will need all of Bernie’s supporters to turn out.  If they don’t, game over.

Clinton Wins Dems in Red States

Hillary Clinton may win the delegate count with the help of super delegates, but she hasn’t been able to defeat Bernie Sanders in very many states that typically vote blue in general elections.  So far, Bernie has taken the blue states of CO, MI, MN and VT.  Clinton, on the other hand, has won mostly in states that go for Republicans, the so called red states. Giving the delegate math, Bernie is not likely to win the nomination.  And if his supporters in Dem. strongholds do not turn out in November to support Clinton, she is not likely to win the presidency.  I can guarantee this:  them southern states ain’ta turnin blue, that’s for sure – although North Carolina and Florida could be up for grabs.  The same could be said for Virginia, a blue state in 2012 that could turn blood red in November.

The problem for the Clinton campaign has been drumming up enthusiasm for her vision, which is not terribly attractive to younger voters.  Her platform has been mostly to assure the public that she’ll continue President Obama’s legacy.  That’s just not enough for young voters who are saddled with debt and fear the future, even though the President has managed to accomplish quite a lot – things that have benefited the young and old alike, despite Republican obstructionism. The thing is, Bernie has a vision – a laudable but unrealistic one in my judgement – of a country where Wall Street is taken down a notch and corporate America willingly pays taxes; a vision where Congress suddenly decides that a single payer health care system makes sense as an alternative to the Obama care that they have tried repeatedly to repeal and replace. Can you see the legislature supporting free tuition and student loan forgiveness for all in debt?  I would like for Wall Street to forgive my credit card debt and my home loan and pay back all the student loans I paid in my day, and I am sure Bernie has a plan for that on his website.  Simply put, BS is full of promises that he cannot possibly deliver, and young people have blindly bought into the rhetoric, just as voters have bought into Trump’s slick and self-funding con job. When BS loses the nomination, as he most assuredly will, will his idealistic young fans rally behind Hillary Clinton?  Sadly, I don’t think they will.

That is, young people will not turn out for Clinton unless she scares the shit of them with the prospects of a Trump presidency.  Are the young idealists capable of grasping reality? Can’t they see that Trump would be an absolute disaster for them and the country?  Do they care?  Would they prefer to have fun at protests for the next four years? I guess it would keep activists employed.   I know that I am being cynical, but the stakes are high.  We can’t lose 4 years to a egomaniac who seems to have no core beliefs except the belief in himself.  Trump essentially wants to lower taxes for the wealthy, give corporate welfare to entice American businesses to come back home, build up a bloated military, which is always good for big business, and get rid of environmental protections, ignoring climate change in the process. He’d somehow deport the undocumented (would he bring back Trump airlines for this?) ban Muslims from entering the country and close mosques, here in the land of the free and the home of the brave.  Trump might have to knock down Lady Liberty and build a giant Trump wall on Ellis Island. Trump’s biggest supporters, the white middle class and the “poorly educated” had better brace to pay more for everything as a result of protectionism, which would spark trade wars.  You like your Honda Civic?  How about paying $50,000 for one.  Might I offer you a Chevy Spark instead?  How about a Dodge Dart? (of course you will need to buy the engine warmer if you live in a cold climate) The bailout was a good idea, but it’s time America make a better car, and only competition can make that happen, that is if you believe in free and fair trade.

And I am only getting started.  If you think the U.S. is a divided nation now, imagine a Trump presidency, full of ego and little regard for civility, a free press, peace, human rights, the environment and democratic institutions.  Congress is not a board of directors and the American people are not simply reality show TV fans.  Hostile takeovers and hardball diplomacy will not gain the U.S. standing in the world or make it any safer.  Imagine Carl Icahn negotiating peace between Israel and the Middle East. And get this, if Trump is elected, can you imagine Ted Cruz as the next Supreme Court justice?  We’d be one step closer to a heavily armed theocracy in this country. It could happen.  I’m serious. If Clinton is unsuccessful in scaring the crap out of young Bernie supporters so that they turnout in November, Trump wins handily and the next 4 years will be an absolute disaster for us all, Trump supporters included.

Election Prediction – Clinton Takes the Top Prize

Despite the polls, the U.S. electorate is unlikely to vote an outsider into office.  What I mean by outsider is one with either no political experience – Fiorina, Trump, Carson- or a candidate who is not a true member of one of the two parties – Trump and Sanders.

For better or worse, the U.S. has just two functioning parties, and one, the GOP, is struggling to stay relevant as it’s been hijacked by Trump and is very close to becoming a fringe party of loud unelectable extremist voices.  In a fierce battle to rescue the party, the leadership will turn its back on Trump and its long line of clowns, which spells defeat for Cruz (the most conservative of the bunch based on rankings from GovTrack.us), Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Kasich and Rick Perry.  Lindsay Graham and Bobby Jindal have no chance polling at less than 1%.  This leaves Bush and Rubio to duke it out and as flawed as Bush numero tres happens to be, I expect him to come out on top.

On the Democrat side, while Sanders, like Trump has attracted large crowds, most won’t vote for a self-described Socialist, much to the dismay of Republicans who praise Bernie as a serious and honest candidate. The GOP would also like nothing better than for Biden to get into the race and even apparently persuaded Quinnipiac to poll Biden’s numbers even though he is not yet running. The GOP and the Press have relentlessly attacked Hillary Clinton over the email server affair hoping to turn it all into a scandal so that Biden runs and wins the nomination.  If he does, Bush may not trounce Biden but he’d have a much easier time beating Biden than he would Hillary Clinton.  However, despite the GOPs attempts to manipulate the Democratic race, I expect Clinton to survive server “scandal” and the rehashed assaults over her role in the Benghazi attack and win the nomination fairly handily over her competitors and take the general by a hanging chad, thanks to Trump’s last minute 3rd party disruption, a la Ralph Nader and Ross Perot.

Does America Really Want a Fresh Face?

If you look at recent Presidential polling from Iowa and North Carolina,only Hillary Clinton seems to hold a commanding lead among Democrats.  For the Republicans, it’s anyone’s game – Walker, Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Paul. And when Clinton goes head to head with any of the Republicans, she has a very small advantage in the polls. Iowans favor her over Rubio, Bush, Paul and Huckabee by just 2 points.  I doubt the other Democrats in the race or being urged to run would fare any better against the Republicans.  Bernie Sanders has no chance. Elizabeth Warren could pose a threat, but she’s not even running…yet.  Frankly, I’d prefer that she be nominated for the Supreme Court if any of the justices step down before President Obama’s term expires.  And who has even heard of O’Malley? The only O’Malley I know is Cardinal Sean from Boston and I don’t think he’s running for President, maybe for Pope in a few years, but not President.  It’s good that Hillary has challengers, but they aren’t exactly household names…well, there’s Biden, but Americans are fed up with most established politicians and there will not be a clear cut favorite.  Folks may want a fresh face.  Certainly this attitude was true in 2008.  Which leads me to this.

What if the fresh face were not a politician at all, or at least not seasoned, someone like the Baltimore prosecutor Marilyn Mosby? Or maybe comedian Jon Stewart?  Ok, he’s not exactly a fresh face, but he will soon be between jobs.  Conan O’Brien is a Harvard graduate, I think, and he’s not only funny but possibly even smart.  Ben Affleck and Matt Damon have Harvard experience, not that that means anything, but club membership is important if only for appearance sake. The Good Will Hunting masterminds don’t need any introductions or campaign contributions for that matter.  Have you ever considered Neil Tyson Degrasse? He’s the smartest guy on television and would be a fierce debater.  The GMO folks don’t like him much though.  I think Sanjay Gupta has earned the trust of most Americans and might be good for what ails America.  Now for the climate changers among us, we shouldn’t forget Bill Nye the Science Guy.  He has curb appeal and a fiesty personality  And there’s Chris Hayes from MSNBC who could make for an interesting candidate running on a platform of income equality.  Michael Steele should make a run as a Republican. Since he left the party leadership, the Republicans have self-destructed. Harold Ford, Jr. could be the moderate choice among Democrats. A wild card could be Anthony Bourdain who is widely traveled and knowledgeable of global affairs, right? Julia Louis-Dreyfus has real experience, no? She’s interesting, funny and smart and a better actor than Ronald Reagan ever was.  Dennis Rodman is another potential candidate who could bring the peace with all of our enemies through basketball.  Lastly, if Tom Brady wins another Superbowl, he might be elected as a right-in candidate, that is if he doesn’t have a scheduling conflict.  I don’t know his politics, but he was oddly absent from the Patriots meeting with the President.  He’s claims to be an Independent, but I don’t see him supporting Bernie Sanders bid.

Sadly, none of these folks will run and even if they did, they would not stand a chance.  As much as Americans distrust politicians (Congress has a 72% disapproval rating) we tend to gravitate toward establishment figures anyway; the tried and true, the Ivy educated, who have name recognition, gobs of money and the support of super wealthy donors. 2016 will be the battle of the royals.  Predicition: Clinton over Bush by 1 hanging chad of a point.

Scott Brown’s Star Will Fade

Some conservative pundits have called Scott Brown’s U.S. Senate victory over Martha Coakley a Massachusetts miracle.  Ted Kennedy held the seat for 46 years.  It is almost unthinkable that his seat would be occupied by a Republican.  However, I imagine that Ted would not have been surprised.  Had he an inkling that a Kennedy might not run for his seat, he might have been nervous that a competitive Democrat could be found.  Let’s see – Coakley, Capuano – not exactly everyday names in Massachusetts.  Coakley had the bigger profile.  US Representative Capuano was known, but not much beyond his district.  I voted for him; even thought he would beat Coakley easily, but I underestimated her and later her opponent Scott Brown, whose daughter of American Idol fame is better known.  No, this is not the Massachusetts miracle, rather the Massachusetts disaster. 

Scott Brown calls himself the 41st senator.  With his election to the U.S. Senate, there is no chance for health care reform, at least not in its current form.  It’s back to the drawing board.  If there is any reform possible, it is certain to benefit the insurance companies.  This is the constituency to which the Republicans are beholden.  It’s that trickle down theory their hero Ronald Regan espoused.  The problem is that nothing trickled down.  The rich got richer and richer and today the wealth disparity between have and have nots is wider than ever before.  This is not an accident.  This is result of years of Republican rule leading to legislation that has favored corporations.  And many nearly went belly up and clamored for government handouts which we have been all to willing to give out.  What happened to welfare reform?  With respect to health care reform, the Republicans and the Blue Dogs masquerading as Democrats seem more concerned about costs than anything else, but where were they during the Bush years as Bush turned a surplus he inherited from Clinton into a massive deficit.  Bush cut taxes, shielded corporations from paying their fair share, made no effort at regulatory reform, spent like there was no tomorrow and nearly led the country into a Depression.  This is what Obama inherited.  A disaster, and now the Massachusetts disaster.

Brown will caucus with the Republicans, but they aren’t going to like him much once they get to know him.  He’s fiscally conservative and a social moderate, some would say bordering on progressive.  He’s more of an independent who will anger both parties like Lieberman.  This will give him some power, but not the power to get reelected in Massachusetts.  His star will fade and he’ll end up going on the talk show circuit with Sarah Palin.  What an interesting presidential ticket that would make.  With any luck, Brown will get his own show on Fox.  Rather he be on Fox than in the U.S. Senate.