Who Wins 2016 – 50 State Breakdown

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From the Political Desk of Ribbie’s Weblog:

The Democratic ticket of Clinton/Kaine will win the general election 335-203 over Trump/Gingrich. Now I could be way off. Kaine and Gingrich might not be the running mates. Clinton could win in a landslide, with Trump’s negative numbers, whose to say it won’t happen.  However, Hillary’s unfavorability numbers are also alarmingly high.  The truth is that many people can’t stand either candidate which means the race is more likely than not to be close.  And factor in other options for disaffected voters like a write-in or not voting at all, the green party candidate, Jill Stein or Gary Johnson of the libertarian  party, we could be looking at a real battle between the “outsider” anti-establishment Republican candidate and team Clinton with the Democratic establishment.  Where Bernie supporters go is up for debate, but unless they don’t mind the prospect of Trump, some will chose Clinton.  Others may find it impossible to vote for either and chose one of the alternative options above.

Here’s how I got to the electoral totals.  Tap on map.

Republicans win 203

  1. Alaska – Sarah Palin.  She’s one of Trump’s only surrogates who can stir up a crowd into a lunatic frenzy and she is still very popular in Alaska.  If no one else accepts the VP invitation, she’ll be on another losing ticket.
  2. Idaho –  A lot of people are living in their own private Idaho and just want the government to get the hell out of their lives.
  3. Montana – My guess is that this is survivalist country and like Idaho, folks want to be left the hell alone.
  4. Wyoming – NRA country.
  5. ND – Obama blamed for everything bad.
  6. SD – Obama blamed for everything bad.
  7. OK – You got no fracking business killing drilling.
  8. AZ – Hands off my guns plus McCain blames Obama for all terrorism, oh, and that anti-immigrant Sherrif is popular.
  9. TX – Don’t mess with Texas or else they’ll secede…again.
  10. AR – Many Arkansans hate Clinton plus Senator Cotton tried to undermine the Iranian agreement in an action that showed supreme disrespect to a sitting President.  And Wal-mart’s anti-union rules rule.
  11. KS – A state full of right-to-lifers who are against planned parenthood.
  12. MS – Always votes GOP and has been messing with the books to suppress the vote.
  13. AL – Always votes GOP and loves Trump’s rheteroic.  USA USA USA.
  14. MO – Pretty much the same as KS with evalangelicals who find some things in Trumpspeak attractive.
  15. GA – Right to Work state – fiercely anti-union and pro-gun with Wal-Mart as state’s largest employer.
  16. SC – Some pissed about the confederate flag being outlawed, but Republican Governor Halley remains popular. Trey Gowdy is a big anti-Clinton cheerleader and won’t let Benghazi go.
  17. TN – Gun state. Volunteerism would be their answer to social problems.
  18. KY – Mitch McConnell land.
  19. WI – Paul Ryan, Reince Priebus, Scott Walker – safely in the bag for the GOP, even though they are not enthusiastic supporters of Trump.
  20. IN – Trump bringing back lost manufacturing jobs.
  21. WV – Mountain Moma…Trump bringing back the mining industry.
  22. NH – because the granite state would like to secede like TX if they could – no taxes for the live free and die state.
  23. RI – The Dems haven’t helped them much.
  24. NE – Pioneer state that loves them some XL pipline.
  25. LA – Gun state.

Democrats win 335

  1. NY – HRC’s home state.  Has long connections there.
  2. MA – Elizabeth Warren will deliver the Bay State.
  3. NJ – Is a blue state with an unpopular GOP Governor in Chris Christie.  They are fed up with climate change deniers.
  4. ME – A blue state but not a lock.
  5. VT – Bernie will deliver but indirectly.  Former Governor Dean is a strong surrogate.
  6. FL – Gun control could be gaining support after Orlando shootings. Hillary wins Florida with strong turnout, despite slight to Wasserman Schultz, and Gov. Scott’s attempts to suppress the vote.
  7. NC – Strong African American voter turnout will make the difference.
  8. CA – strong blue state with Jerry Brown endorsement
  9. OR – strong blue state with good coffee and the show Portlandia.
  10. WA – Strong blue state.
  11. NV – Harry Reid saves the day.
  12. UT – Mormons won’t get behind Trump; Romney will see to that.
  13. NM – Lots of Latinos promise to turn out plus Bill Richardson is back on the Clinton bandwagon.
  14. MN – A purple rain state turned blue state because Trump would be a disaster.
  15. MI – A blue state with strong support from the African American and Muslim American communities.  Republicans took big hit for Flint.
  16. IL – The Obamas will deliver the state where Hillary grew up.
  17. OH – Sherrod Brown delivers the rust belt swing state.
  18. PA –  She’ll win Pittsburg and Philadephia, but it may be close overall.
  19. MD – HRC should win with strong African American turnout. Martin O’Malley endorsement could help.
  20. DC – Solidly in the bag for the Dems.
  21. VA – Democratic leaning state  with Tim Kaine securing the deal.
  22. CO – I can’t imagine stoners voting for Trump.
  23. CT – Gun control.
  24. DE – Joe Biden.
  25. HI – President Obama’s home state.
  26. IA – Trump doesn’t have much of a ground game there.  Plus, he called Iowan voters stupid
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