McCain 278 – Obama 260

Based on national polling averages, Obama has about a 6% lead over McCain.  However, I believe the race is much closer.  If you think Obama has this election wrapped up, you had better think again.  I just put together a frightening scenario that would put McCain over 270 electoral votes.  This is based on the possibility of McCain winning in states where Obama has a slight lead.  This plausible projection has McCain sweeping the South and taking chunks of the Midwest and West.   Here’s how it could play out:  McCain wins TX, FL, GA, NC, VA, MO, TN, AL, LA, KY, SC, AR, OK, KS, MS, WV and NH, NE, IN, OH, CO, ND, SD, AZ, NV, UT, ID, WY, MT and AK = 278 electoral votes.

Obama:  HI, CA, WA, OR, NM, NY, NJ, ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, DE, DC, MD, IL, IA, MN, WI, PA, MI = 260

States in bold are too close to call (5% or less).  In the underlined states, VA, MO, NC, NV, CO, and NH, Obama leads, but I give McCain the win to illustrate what could happen if Obama supporters don’t turn out on election day.

Recognize too that the Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and the Independant Ralph Nader could play the role of spoiler, just as Nader did in 2000, with 97,000 votes in Florida, helping GW Bush defeat Gore.  And going back, let’s not forget the impact of  Ross Perot who received substantial support in 1992 (5%) and in 1996 (8%) helping Clinton gain and maintain the Presidency.  If you support Obama, VOTE.  Don’t let polling numbers lull you into a false sense of security!

Comments welcome.

2 Responses

  1. Is it possible that Obama could win the popular vote, but McCain win the electoral vote?

    If that happens, a la Gore vs. Bush, I predict there will be a lot of angry Obama supporters.

  2. Bix, anything is possible and likely.

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